Seasonality in Real Estate

April 1st officially marks the ‘back end’ of season. The majority of seasonal rentals will end as that group of people fly back to New Jersey. The Fools (pun intended)!

The good news is that the wait on a weekend for Guanabanas should be 2 hours long instead of 3 hours. Figure ½ hour from I95 to get to Costco’s on Northlake instead of the in-season 45 minutes. Historically, it’s been good news for certain categories of Buyers although the last time we had a normal season was 3 years ago.

The next 8-10 weeks will be a Real Estate frenzy. We have a backlog of Buyers who are just waiting in the wings so even the renters who left are here in spirit are really still there waiting to pull the trigger on a home purchase once the right home is available. Snowbirds are typically here until at least Easter (April 17^th) and usually Mother’s Day (May 8^th – now you can’t say you forgot as us Realtors are good for things like that….and for remembering to turn back the clocks). Families tune into Real Estate right now and want to be settled before the start of the school year (August 10, 2022). Most of those purchases happen in May and June.

However, the growth of Palm Beach and Martin County has changed things with many more year rounders and lots of Buyers waiting in the wings. It used to be that the more difficult ‘snowbird’ homes would have to lower their prices if they sat on the market through season. Not so much anymore. Buyers right now are very focused and have gone through the discovery process of which communities and what type of home they want to be in. My biggest piece of advice to Buyers is to move quickly, especially if you are out of town. With an AS-IS contract if written up properly, you have a right to cancel at your sole discretion with no loss of deposit. Use that to your advantage and cancel the contract if you change your mind. Sometimes you don’t have the luxury of flying down to see it. On the listing side, you really want to get your home on the market now if you are thinking of selling. Once we hit July, the pace of the market will slow down, especially if Covid is more in the rear view mirror and we get back to normalcy.

Normal Schedule of Purchasing

- Snowbirds arrive between October 15 – November 15.
- But they do not buy so much between those dates. It’s more back and forth. Then you have Thanksgiving, Christmas/Hanukkah, New Years.
- The Renters come down on January 1.
- Relatives visit during Winter Break. Figure December 20 – January 5.
- Everyone plays a round of golf, goes to beach, does a Costco run and celebrates the relatives going back up North.
- Looking takes place between Jan 10^th and February 15^th. People in this time frame are figuring out where they want to be. Do I hold off a year? Delray Beach condo or Palm Beach Gardens Single Family Home? In a normal market, the cherry homes will sell in this period. In a hot market Buying starts here.
- Feb 15^th – March 31. This is the feeding frenzy. Renters must purchase before their rent ends on March 31. Girt bought a home and now her friend, Barbara, who would like to keep up with Girt, gives her husband Irving the “eyes” at an open house, when he isn’t interested in purchasing. Irving knows from the “eyes” that it’s time to purchase and if he does not than uh oh……….
- April – May. Snowbirds still buying but with more of a shotgun approach because they know what they want. If it’s a bad market, prices can dip. If it’s a strong market, then there are only leftovers to purchase and you know prices will be going up next season.
- April – July 3^rd. Families start looking right after spring break. Mid May and June are the big family purchasing months as school ends. Mom wants to purchase by July 4^th. School starts on August 15^th typically and families want to be settled before that date.
- July – August- September. Our deadest months. Snowbirds and Renters are long gone. Locals are on vacations. Hurricane watch starts in late August. Some pre buyers will come down after Labor Day. And then the cycle starts again.