Follow the Pending’s

Following the money usually gets you to the motivation behind what someone is doing. I had one relative who loved the horse track. Studying whether horses were sweating on their legs was his clue for whether the horse would win. He’d go right to the first row, and if droplets of sweat were dripping down—my uncle would let it ride.

If you followed his money, you’d find most of it ended up in the coffers of the track’s owners. Follow the horse track, and the tracks usually lead to the poorhouse. Follow the money with the NBA poker players this week, as the Feds did, and that’ll probably lead to the slammer!

If you’ve been reading Jeff’s Journal over the past few months, I’ve been saying, “Follow the pending’s.” The pending’s are the leading indicator of what’s happening in future months, as a typical closing is 30–60 days out.

As Neil Diamond would say, “A hot August night leads to a good September morning.” In real estate in 2025, that was true.

September sales, released on Thursday, reflect under-contract deals from July and August. The numbers are drastically different from 2024—and in a good way if you’re a seller.

Single-family homes were up 24.8% in September 2025 versus September 2024. Condos and townhomes were up 18.2%. Port St. Lucie saw a 21% increase in single-family homes. It’s the same across other counties—even Dade County, which had been hit the hardest, finally saw year-over-year increases in closed sales.

Inventory is still going up, but it’s slowing drastically. Single-family homes year-over-year are only up 2.8% in Palm Beach County. This month’s numbers by category are fascinating. You can dive into all the numbers and rates here.

So, why the giant jump—and what else is happening?

Here are eight key thoughts:

Follow the Pending’s
It takes 30–60 days to go from pending to sold. The pending stats were way up in July and August. I wrote about this over the past few months and predicted this surge. Based on our numbers in October and November, the trend will continue. There’ll be no “October surprise” for me—I expect to see more big jumps.
Supply
Inventory has increased nearly every week since May 2022. In most areas, there are options. The best product might still be limited, and in outer areas it might be higher, but buyers can find what they want.
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Some of this isn’t as hot as it looks. Last August through December was awful for real estate sales. Election jitters. Blame Biden or Trump depending on your political preference. 2024’s numbers in those months reverted to 2020 levels. So part of this year’s giant jump is somewhat of a mirage. Sellers should stay tempered—it’s not a full-fledged sellers’ market yet. But the bottom has passed, in my opinion.
House Values
Since prices have stayed stagnant or dropped slightly in most categories, they’ve become a better “buy” for purchasers. Because they haven’t risen with inflation, they’ve effectively depreciated in real value—maybe the only product in America other than gasoline where that’s true. Think about it!
Other Positives for Buyers
Lower rates and increased inventory are positives that are driving sales.
The Party Is Quieting Down for Buyers
I’m seeing so-so inventory start to move. Homes without the ideal combination of features are now selling. We had one with an old roof, no view, no pool, and an upstairs primary bedroom go under contract this week. We’d had offers before, but the seller finally decided to move it when it got close enough on price. Plus, the home they’re buying dropped—so what’s the difference?

Same thing happened on another property this week—but that one sparked a bidding war. If the buyer who lost out had made their offer two weeks earlier, maybe they’d have gotten it. Remember, I told you to watch the car transporters last week!
Cost of Living
The cost of living is hitting everyone hard. People are watching their restaurant spending. Health care costs that just came out are making people pause. HOA costs have jumped. Everything from apparel to car repairs is giving consumers sticker shock.

Rates at 6.17% are at the “magic number,” but will that magic number move? It might take an even lower rate now to make up for the rising cost of living.
The Country Club Market
The one other interesting thing going on is the country club market, which has been an outlier—a complete sellers’ market.

Admirals Cove in Jupiter, for example, raised its membership fee from $400K to $500K. Not long ago it was under $300K. Take a look at our Country Club Cost Comparison. Dues have nearly doubled since the pandemic in many clubs. What used to be a refundable equity percentage on resale is now nothing back.

Your average lawyer, doctor, or business owner can’t afford top clubs like Admirals Cove anymore—these are now folks in that $10M + net’s worth. BallenIsles just went from $215K to $295K. I remember when sports memberships were $85K not long ago, and there was a 100-person waiting list to get out of the golf membership. Now it’s the other way around.

Even the “value country clubs” are now creeping toward $100K. The reason? No new clubs have been built east of I-95 and the Turnpike in over 15 years. Less supply and wealthier buyers equal higher demand.

When I heard half a million dollars to join Admirals Cove, instead of saying, “That’s crazy,” I said to someone, “Why not a million dollars?” There was no laugh on the other end—because I was dead serious.

Just follow the money. It’s all over the place in South Florida.