Seasonality Hole in One

I’ve heard Northerners who don’t live here say, “I miss the seasons.”
Me – “Are you nuts?”
“Well, what about the vibrant fall leaves?”
Me – “It’s basically hospice for the leaf. They turn a bright orange, run out of oxygen, and poof — fall to their grave, only to be trampled by animals and split into little pieces for mulch and food for earthworms, shrooms, and insects.”

“How about the weather turning crisp? No feeling like a crisp autumn day!”
“That’s another prelude to awfulness. Sixty degrees becomes 49, then 38, and before you know it, minus six — when black ice occurs. Between skidding on the ice or throwing out your back shoveling snow, there’s nothing nice about living in sleet and slush.”

Only personal injury lawyers and chiropractors really like the signs of fall.

The birds are smart. They start to migrate to the warm weather. Overhead come the beautiful painted bunting birds, sandhill cranes, yellow warblers, white pelicans, and our Canadian geese friends. Mammals like bears and groundhogs are stuck because they don’t have feathers, so they go to sleep. Who wants to deal with all that death and shivering cold? Brrrr.

The well-to-do in the early 19th century figured out the birds were smart and followed them down to Florida. As commercial airplanes, the road system, and air conditioning became mainstream, Florida became the place to be. The Midwestern highway system took them to the west coast of Florida, and I-95 led them straight down the east coast.

In South Florida, a bright orange color on a tree isn’t the grim reaper — it’s a fruit you can eat or drink as a breakfast juice. The only ice you’ll see in South Florida is in your Old Fashioned.

Season signals the beginning of theatre at the Kravis Center and festivals throughout all the towns — from art shows to Garlic Fest. There are no galoshes, mittens, or frozen nose hairs here.

The first sign of the changing season is this week. Instead of looking overhead, pay attention to the car transporters carrying down 6–12 vehicles — that’s the first sign that season is here. Restaurateurs and Realtors start to salivate.

Real Estate Seasonality

In real estate, the most common question we get is: How is the market, and when do I list?

The market is better than it was last year, for certain. First, there’s more inventory. Mortgage rates are a bit lower (remember, they dropped to 6.07% in September before jettisoning back up to 7%). Check out today’s rates here. We also don’t have an election taking place, which last year during the summer and fall froze the housing market. (Although I hear New York City has an election coming up!)

Pre-season is iffy — sometimes there’s activity, and other times it’s nonexistent. If you’re in the market, it’s always best to buy during pre-season because sellers are still adding up their carrying costs and are negotiable, plus you avoid other buyers driving prices up.

We could see a burst of buyers from New York City depending on their election results — both individuals and corporations making the move en masse, like ServiceNow just did from California to West Palm Beach with 850 jobs averaging $175K.

Sellers also see the daylight of season as we get past Thanksgiving, and many decide to wait it out until 2026 rolls along.

Timing Is Everything

On January 1, 2026, it’ll seem like you have until the end of the world to market your house — until you realize you don’t. Seasonal renters start their rental on January 1. A few stay until January 31, others until the end of February, but the majority leave on March 31, 2026. That’s only 12 weeks until the season starts to unwind!

Sellers typically wait until March 1 to lower their prices en masse if it’s a soft season. They realize, “Oh s***, the buyers are going home at the end of the month!” The problem is that many of the good buyers have already purchased, and now you have to lower the price because everyone else has lowered theirs.

You also end up under a time crunch as carrying costs to hold a property are high when you add up taxes, HOA, usage of money at 4.5% return, insurance, etc.

But another thing may stifle price drops this year: prices have already dropped. Depending on the category, prices have stayed flat or fallen slightly. Right now, inflation is 3% and rising. Home prices, by not keeping up with inflation, have become silver-lining purchases. There’s no way this will continue indefinitely.

Snowbird & Family Seasons

Snowbirds are typically here until at least Easter (April 20th) and usually Mother’s Day (May 10th — you can send me an email of thanks for reminding you). Families tune into real estate in the spring and want to be settled before the start of the school year (August 11th, 2026).

Most of those purchases happen in April, May, and June. However, it’s best to get your family home on the market much earlier, during snowbird season.

That’s for a few reasons:

It gives you plenty of time.
Turn: There’s so much sales activity in season that when one home sells, it lets that seller (who might be a buyer) purchase the home they’re looking for.
Dominos fall up and down — more activity begets more activity.
Snowbirds take up a lot of the sales, and a family home might appeal to both a snowbird who wants a bigger house and a snowbird who has lots of family.
If the seller of a starter townhouse or small home is a family who sells to a snowbird, that’s when that family has to move — so family homes move during both snowbird and family seasons.

Once we hit mid-June and July, the pace of the market really slows down — unless it’s an oddball offseason like COVID or a hyper shortage of homes. Not on my bingo card, but who knows.

Normal Schedule of Purchasing

Oct 15 – Nov 15: Snowbirds arrive.
They don’t buy much yet — it’s more back-and-forth. (Unless supply is high and there’s a wild Northern election — then it’s a wildcard.)
Then come Thanksgiving, Christmas/Hanukkah, and New Year’s.
Jan 1: Renters arrive.
Dec 20 – Jan 5: Relatives visit during Winter Break. Everyone plays a round of golf, hits the beach, does a Costco run, and celebrates when the relatives go back up north.
Jan 10 – Feb 15: The “looking” phase. Buyers are figuring out where they want to be.
“Do I hold off a year? Delray Beach condo or Palm Beach Gardens single-family home?”
In a normal market, the cherry homes sell during this period. In a hot market, buying starts here.
Feb 15 – Mar 31: The feeding frenzy. Renters must buy before their leases end March 31.
Girt buys a home, and now her friend Barbara, who wants to keep up, gives her husband Irving the eyes at an open house. Irving knows from the eyes that it’s time to buy—or else!
Apr – May: Snowbirds are still buying but with a more focused approach because they know what they want.
In a bad market, prices can dip. In a strong one, only leftovers remain—and prices will rise next season.
Apr – July 3: Families start looking after spring break. Mid-May and June are peak months.
Mom wants the home closed by July 4. School starts mid-August, and families want to be settled before then.
Jul – Sep: The slowest months. Snowbirds and renters are long gone, locals are on vacation, and hurricane watch starts in late August. Some pre-buyers come down after Labor Day, and then the cycle starts again.

So, if you’re a buyer, don’t hibernate like the lazy bear this year — get yourself down like the birds.
To use a golfing phrase, being like a birdie or an eagle is how you score early in real estate.