Real Estate Crystal Ball 2026

The Science of People Team recently talked about the 13 types of toxic people and how to spot them. There is the Conversational Narcissist who doesn’t ask any questions and won’t shut up. The Emotional Moocher, aka the spiritual vampire, who sucks the positivity out of you and bleeds you emotionally dry. The Drama Magnet who only wants your empathy, sympathy, and support. The JJ, which doesn’t stand for Jeff’s Journal but is a jealous-judgmental person. But the Science of People Team clearly missed a 14th type. While I love my dad dearly, he fits a specific toxic personality: the PP, aka the “Party Pooper.”

If you are a fan of athletics and must attend a sporting event (other than golf) with one — Cary Lichtenstein — don’t! When I groveled as a kid to go to a game and went, his breakfast of champions was the race to the parking lot. Beating the outgoing traffic was dad’s Super Bowl, and I admit he was good at it. Dad was not a pillar of patience when it came time to sporting events. Me, on the other hand, as a suffering Chicago sports aficionado, was a nervous wreck and had a need to stay to the bitter end — aka the 15th type of toxic personality, the “glutton for punishment personality affixation.” Dad was usually right, but every so often wrong.

As a Bears fan this season, I’ve been rewarded for years of distress. Six less than 2 minutes to go fourth-quarter comebacks, including a blocked final-second field goal win and last week’s cardiac onside-kick recovery along with the 50-yard bomb to win the game against the dreaded Cheese Heads of Green Bay. At one point, ESPN had the betting odds of the Bears winning at 0.05%. My dad would have been long gone, and I’d have needed a heart transplant if we missed it.

People bet on everything these days. Days of my Grandpa Irving being a professional bookie for a living are long gone. Sports betting is not just who wins but every play within the game now. It’s expanded beyond that thought. You can bet on who will be the next Pope or even MTG Specials at an Australian site. Will MTG join America Party (-140). Label President Trump a “demon” (+200), elected as a U.S. Senator for Georgia (+1400), joins Democratic Party (+2500), date any Trump family member (+5000), injured by a space laser (+10,000). Kalshi has made Launa Lopes Lara become a billionaire at 29 years of age for the bets as follows: Will Anaconda get a score of above 50? 67% say yes. Will there be above 4 inches of rain in L.A. this month? Only 3% say yes. 67% think there will be above 2050 cases of measles. Upon learning this I’ve become kind of distraught with drought bets. In the 6^th grade an epic fight broke out from one kid who proclaimed to be a great marathon runner and the other with a nickname of “Puke”. Puke and the jogger bet $10 that it would rain the next day. When it didn’t, Puke demanded his Hamilton. The great proclaimed sprinter said it rains every day in the Amazon. That led to the classic 3 o’clock elementary school fight. When Puke wasn’t looking, surrounded by the whole 6^th grade, the racer took his Prince Woodie tennis racket (he was a dual athlete) and hit Puke over the head. The problem was the marathon runner was quite slow and certainly not adept in boxing. Plus, Puke was red faced-angry hence the nickname of Puke. It didn’t end well for the steady pace runner. Point is – dumb bets on the the rain were right in front of my nose and I didn’t see it.

I was correct on predicting the Bears win totals the past 3 years. My speculation this year was 7-10 with 10 victories being the perfect storm for wins. An unusually difficult schedule, weak defensive line, and stars aligning through offseason free agent acquisitions made that number seen safe. But the stars did assemble. The offensive line has been stellar, healthy, and every move worked out. The draft and free agency yielded top results along with lady luck. Today the Bears are aiming for win #12.

Predictions are not so easy. They say a broken clock is right twice a day. Last May, I wrote a Jeff’s Journal article titled Inflation Boomerang, in which I predicted home sales activity would accelerate later in 2025 as prices wouldn’t keep up with inflation — thus making home values depreciate and become better values. Sure enough, I got that one right. If you listened to my advice, I’ll take a bow.

How about the real estate crystal ball for 2026? Like my Bears prediction for 2025, always take predictions with a grain of salt as variables and the unexpected can change things.

Yes, it’s that time of the year for the JJ crystal ball. Here goes. 7 key factors to watch in the market. The crystal ball as I see it for 2026 offers robust activity now through the end of March with prices rising and then cooling off as we get deeper into spring. The November sales activity was fantastic. Lots of good news if you are a homeowner. Here is the rundown and you can browse all the statistics over here. The first factor is Inventory…

1. Inventory

Inventory has started to stabilize after 3.5 years of steadily increasing month after month. Active inventory in Palm Beach County dropped 1.7%, and months of supply dropped 1.5% in November.

Back in May 2022, inventory was at historic all-time lows. Inflation that hit 9% forced interest rates higher, with mortgage rates following. Prices still rose because the baseline inventory was so low, but the golden goose for sellers had ended.

By April of 2025, the market came to a halt. Tariffs topped the good winter momentum as no one knew what to expect. Inventory continued to rise and the even the northern part of the United States which was outperforming Florida, started to slow down. Must Sellers over the offseason in Florida finally lowered their prices to market as they needed to sell to stop the cost of carry and lost opportunity cost. Mortgage rates that hovered between 6 – 6.5% were the magic number to makes things move.

2. Condos – End of the Line

Buy-buy-buy. The bottom has hit condos.

It’s been 3 years since the Surfside incident and condo associations that were required to have engineer inspections done, repairs made, proper assessments put in place and reserves set aside have occurred. The unknown which forced prices down is complete. In November, condo activity (mixed with townhomes) spiked 20.7%. Granted, all activity is up from last fall when sales were dismal due to election jitters. But the increase has occurred. Watch this category take off. Another prediction I had was an article in December of 2022 titled Condo Chaos Or Condo Calm. My forecast was that we would see chaos and then calm. That prophecy proved correct although the timing was off due to the slowness to tackle inflation and then the variable of tariffs.

3. Pendings

The pendings are way up at present. Pendings, as I’ve been screaming about this year, are the leading indicator for real estate. Closed sales for all property types were up 20.1% in November. New pending sales were up 16.5% which means December and January 2026 will be strong months. But don’t get too far ahead of yourself as when overall prices throughout the general economy are rising it’s hard to know when consumers pull back.

4. Inflation

It’s hard to know exactly what the real rate of inflation is right now after the government shutdown, but it has been hovering at 3% with many seeing an uptick coming.

Did you get your new health insurance quote recently? Been to a restaurant? Purchase clothing? I’ve seen wealthy homeowners on the Intracoastal just pass on homeowners’ insurance because of the price. (If you do without it, consider at least getting flood insurance is my one bit of advice.) Tariffs are here to stay. People with extreme wealth don’t feel the effects right away. The poor on the other hand are impacted immediately. The middle class and upper middle class as discussed last week sense it after a longer drip in months 5-6-7).

The first industry I started in back in 1991 was the home furnishings textile industry. I learned early that the leading indicator for farbric sales was housing starts. If nobody was buying houses they didn’t need drapery fabric. New starts would slow and 9 months later, once the house was completed, our industry felt the hit. My dad would shrink the fabric line, and the vacations and discretionary spending came to a halt. As the masses curtail spending, the upper middle class and wealthy start to feel the pinch as their business starts to get the downwind stench. Hopefully this doesn’t occur but that is a possibility come springtime if consumers buckle up.

5. Mortgage Incentives

So long to the 620-credit score. Hello to 50-year mortgages? Lower than 6.5% mortgages look like they are here to stay. All things that should help people get loans. Despite inflation, home prices have stayed stubbornly soft and have become much more affordable by not going up with the rate of inflation. With a new Fed Chair coming in May, it’s possible that the Fed loses its autonomy. Maybe you see rates being lowered, which could mean higher inflation down the road. My Crystal Ball does factor in expecting the unexpected.

6. New Construction

New construction has a problem. Labor costs are up (or like Cary and Elvis, have left the building – double pun) and material outlays have risen with tariffs. That must be passed on to the consumer.

But go to high and the separation between resellers who peg their price at times to what they paid for it at market a decade ago and new construction has a problem. Builders will have to work on tighter margins and not produce so much. People calling for plans to build more to erase the 4 million home shortage don’t quite understand that developers need to sell at a profit.

7. Impact

I see a hot start to season due to lessening inventory, less supply of new construction speculation, enough must sellers, pent up demand, and acceptable mortgage rates.

Expect prices to jump up to start to match inflation. Buyers – the party of no competition is over. We are already seeing Buyers lose houses to multiple bidders. Think about it – prices have plummeted when you factor in that they haven’t matched inflation and looking back, I believe this period will be seen as a bargain. However, that hot start has the potential to slow down once we get deeper into spring and spending overall is curbed.

Final Thoughts

We at ECHO Fine Properties hope you have a wonderful rest of the holiday season and a happy, healthy New Year. And as always, remember to give us a buzz for all your real estate questions and needs.

We will never leave the transaction early.