Planes ✈️, Hotels 🏨, & Concerts 🎵

Planes, Hotels, & Concerts

I woke up to the shiny lights of a convoy of cars and trucks at 4:45 am on Highway 16. Highway 16 is part of the Yellowhead Highway and part of the Trans-Canada Highway system. We must’ve gone to sleep around 12:30am or 1:00 am in our Ford Expedition off the side of the road in a town named Valemount, British Columbia. People were brushing their teeth and wandering around like the walking dead as we all started to wake up. See, if you read Jeff’s Journal last week, you would know that my trip to Canada was off to a bad start. First, Neil Young, the Godfather of Grunge, canceled his concert in Calgary. Then, our flight was on the day that Microsoft’s computer crashed. That was 2 bad things. I wrote last week that I was waiting for the bad things to come in 3’s. They did. In a BIG way. (Yes, there will be a real estate June numbers connection to all of this once you hear of our terrible three story. Be patient.). But first let’s go back up to the Great White North.

We had a reservation at a new restaurant in Jasper named The Peacock. It was a wine pairing type, and things were going great. However, the sky changed to an ominous gray and folks were gathering around outside the restaurant. By the time it was ready for dessert, the owner said “we are packing it all up to go.” The staff were part of the volunteer fire department, but the owner said not to worry too much. We all gasped, “Huh?!?”. We ran out of the restaurant. Ashes were falling down on us….

We phoned an Echo agent, named Allison Harper, who just happened to be at the Jasper Lodge with her family and three little ones. She told us that the staff had just knocked on the door and said we all might need to evacuate!

We stopped by the lobby and right then they got the call that the entire town had to evacuate. We drove back to our lodge. The electricity was out, and we were searching in panic with our iPhone lights in the dark. It became frightening not knowing how close the fire really was. All four bags got packed within minutes and we then flew out by the back golf course exit and joined a three-hour convoy out of town. Worse, we were in such a rush that we forgot our passports. Then Jasper burned down. Yes, you heard that correctly. Read more about the wildfires and evacuation of Jasper. The town and our lodge and our passports went up in smoke. This was certainly number three!

So, we then made reservations in Vancouver once we woke up in the morning as we figured our reservation in Lake Louise might be cancelled. Dealing with a million calls getting reservations, and changing flights and cars, and disappointing Great Uncle Larry in Whitefish who we were going to visit, and passport situations with bad internet connection… was exhausting. Then we realized Vancouver was just too much as changing our car drop off was not going to work well. So, we canceled Vancouver and had to resurrect our previous reservations including calling back Great Uncle Larry as we were coming after all. Half a day was spent gathering information for an “Emergency Passport”. After two five-hour days of traveling out west and then south and north we finally arrived at The Fairmount in Lake Louise at 8pm only to get up at 4am to drive to Calgary for our appointment at the Embassy, which lasted five hours. It was grey flame stich carpeting, 32 fluorescent ceiling bulbs, and the ambience of the Palm Beach County traffic room at the courthouse when you get a ticket. I was so tired on the way back to the hotel that I forgot to check how much gas I had. A red light went on and somehow, we made it to a gas station with 30km left of fuel. Fortunately, bad things don’t happen in 4’s!

If you feel depleted of energy after reading this, then you will also understand what is happening in the real estate market. The price of single-family homes in Palm Beach County hit an all-time high of $659,000. But that is not the real story. The real story is about inventory. Inventory has skyrocketed by 55% over the past 12 months. 4,379 homes versus 2,826. Condos are even higher at 108.3%. 8,938 now versus 4,291 in 2023. Months of inventory of single-family homes is 4.3% which indicates an equilibrium marketplace. On the condo side it’s 7.9 months now, which indicates a Buyers’ market. Time to sell has also jumped up. You can see all the Stats here and flip through different counties.

What is going on is a combination of higher interest rate differentials, sellers unwilling to budge, a shortage of homes overall, and the election. This has caused a bottleneck. No different to how I wanted to try and redo my Vancouver trip. Reality seeped in and it was too difficult to make buying and selling moves with so many variables. It is also leading to shadow inventory returning for the first time in years. We have several Sellers that don’t want to put their home on the market just yet. They want a high number but are seeing homes sit. What does all of this mean? Inflation finally looked like it had calmed down from the 9% to 3.3% battle. Then last week it dropped to 3% and signs indicate the Fed is finally going to drop rates. It will take a few points though to get rates from 7% to under 5% which is the magic number to see the market move. The election will end. Some will be happy and buy and some that are unhappy will sell. My crystal ball sees a lot more activity in 2025 once season hits. There are just too many shadow purchasers and shadow inventory that’s building. Many will become must purchasers and must sellers. I’m too tired today to get into what will happen with prices. But I will tell you this… If you want somewhere to travel to, I recommend going to Canada. I’ve used up the bad luck here for everyone.

As a side thought, the nice restauranter of the Peacock (she also owns the Raven for those of you who have been to Jasper), and two older gents we bumped into at a diner five hours away changed my outlook. Sometimes you read about these things in the news. For us, we experienced it. Yet, connecting with actual people and knowing their lives are shattered put all our tough travels into perspective.

P.S.

From Allison with Echo who was coincidentally on the exact same trip as us.

Well this trip keeps getting better 🤪I dislocated my shoulder on the flight back with an 1 hr left I was reaching under the seat and it popped out it took 45 minutes and a doctor on board who helped get it back in 😩she was a life saver! It was soo painful it hasn’t happened in 3 years..the paramedics put a sling when we arrived in ATL and I’m going to power through to get home

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Jeff Lichtenstein, originally from Chicago, got his start in the home furnishings textile business where he traveled over 35 weeks a year selling fabrics. After the family business was sold, Jeff moved to Florida and became a real estate agent. Today he is the owner and broker of Echo Fine Properties, a luxury residential brokerage voted best brokerage of the year. Jeff manages a non-traditional model of real estate that mimics a traditional business model. Echo has 80 agents, an average of one million dollars per transaction and over 500 million in annual sales. Between traveling for work and annual family trips to national parks with his wife and 2 now adult children, Jeff has visited 49 states. He is also one of the few Chicago White Sox fans you’ll ever meet. Some publications he has been quoted in.

Author of business & leadership book How Making a Sandwich Can Change Your World – The Amazing Success of the PB&J Strategy – Available to Buy Now!

Feel free to ask him a question directly at [email protected] including a complementary valuation of your home.