In hurricanes’ wake, expect more homeowners to rebuild rather than move, industry analysts say

Article first appeared: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2024/10/21/in-the-hurricanes-wake-there-will-be-more-rebuilding-than-moving-industry-analysts-say/

Now that Hurricanes Helene and Milton have savaged countless homes on the Gulf Coast and across Central and South Florida, perennial post-storm questions are again being raised among beleaguered homeowners: Is now the time to get out for good? And for those who do decide to move, what will the real estate picture look like for people in search of new dwellings?

Post-Hurricane snapshots suggest many have little choice amid the chaos and calamity: fetid debris piled high in Gulf Coast towns and cities, homes flooded beyond repair, a massive construction crane collapsed in a heap on a downtown St. Petersburg street, an alligator languishing on a bed as it floated along a canal in Florida’s Big Bend.

A number of frustrated Gulf Coast home and business owners have informed visiting news reporters they have had enough and are contemplating an exit from paradise. Overall, the hurricanes appear to have further dampened a once explosive real estate market already slowed by high mortgage rates and insurance costs,  relegating a large potential buyer pool to the sidelines.

Post-Helene, there were signs that some owners are leaving regardless of the cost, posting distressed property listings on Zillow.

“Motivated seller! Flood damage from Helene,” declares one listing for a two-bedroom, one-bath St, Petersburg home seeking $290,000 in cash. A key sales point: The land next door is earmarked for a $1.5 million home building project.

Despite the trauma, people in the real estate, financial and property management industries are steadfast that the housing market’s post-storm future will be a rebound, mirroring others of the past: Floridians will continue to rebuild damaged communities, more single-family home and condo developments will be built in places roughed up by the storms, while prices, over the long term, will go up.

Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist  for Florida Realtors, the Orlando-based industry trade group, said it’s too early for data to show the degree to which the Gulf Coast area housing stock was damaged by Milton beyond repair, or whether buyers are moving into other regions of the state.

But numbers from past storms, he suggested, have shown benign results.

“The general trend we found is that there never seems to be a statewide impact in the market,” he said. There is usually a “temporary lull in sales” or “bump in the road in zones hit by storms.

“Usually we see within a couple of months the same number of sales as before,” O’Connor added.

Ken Johnson, a real estate economist at the University of Mississippi who formerly worked at Florida Atlantic University, said he sees “no scenario under which we see home prices decline dramatically in Florida,” despite the presence of distress sales.

“There is too strong a demand,” he said.  “That’s bad news for affordability. The size and scope of the Florida economy 30 years ago isn’t like the  behemoth we see today. It’s just not retirement and hospitality any more.”

Motivated to move?

When Milton was forecast as a Category 5 storm bearing winds of 160 mph and above, countless Gulf Coast residents got a taste of elsewhere as they heeded a chorus of warnings from federal, state and local officials: “Get out!”  The projected wind speeds were akin to those delivered by Hurricane Andrew, which 32 years ago leveled much of southern Dade County, driving thousands northward to settle in Broward County. The toll: 63,500 homes destroyed, 124,000 damaged for a total cost of $27.3 billion.

For Milton alone, AccuWeather offered a preliminary damage estimate of $160 billion to $180 billion.

Could an Andrew-styled mass migration happen post Helene and Milton? Economists, consultants and government officials don’t believe so, although many evacuees got to sample the hotels, restaurants and retail shops in North, Central and South Florida.

According to a small business index released last week by Fiserve, a New York-based financial technology and payments firm, average daily sales in Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach fell 12% during the storm and 25% in its immediate aftermath, but spending on accommodations jumped 39%. It was an indicator that South Florida hotels got a lift during a normally slow stretch of October.

Whether the evacuees liked what they saw to the extent they’d want to move is unknown.

“It’s been a week and we haven’t heard a lot from it,” said Jeff Lichtenstein, owner of  Echo Fine Properties of Palm Beach Gardens.

“We’ve actually had more calls from over here because of the tornadoes where people need a place to rent,” Lichtenstein said. “We’re not getting an influx. It’s still so early.”

Homeowners who lack the insurance and other financial resources to repair and rebuild are the most likely ones to pack up and leave, said Fort Lauderdale real estate attorney Jeffrey Margolis of the Berger Singerman law firm.

“They want out or are not able to afford to rebuild or from a mental standpoint don’t want to deal with it anymore,” he said, arguing a collective exodus from a hard-hit area could result in a downdraft in prices. “Once that clears out, the market could stabilize and come back to where it was prior to the storm.”

“But in the long term, the storms could result in higher prices because of lower supply,” he added. “I don’t think a drop in price is something that would be continuing.”

More affluent areas will likely see homeowners staying where they are as the residents deploy personal resources to rebuild.

“The storm itself I think is not going to have the same effect in areas that are more middle class or with people who have the means to ride through the aftermath,” said Margolis, who as a college student moved with his family from south Dade County to Broward after Hurricane Andrew.

Christina Pappas, president of The Keyes Company, one of the state’s largest independent real estate brokerages, expects a boost in housing inventory over time.

“There is no question the developers come in after a storm and typically are part of the fuel to the redevelopment of the area,” she said.  “The majority of the time the market will be quiet for two to four months” as damage assessments are made and debris is cleared.

“After that we always see a surge in activity for the next nine to 12 months,” she added. “You have a plethora of new inventory because things get fixed up. Historically the neighborhoods actually get an upgrade.”

Lesley Deutch, managing principal for John Burns Research and Consulting in Boca Raton, said if there is any migration from one part of the state to another, the motive will be a search for affordability.

“I do think you are going to see inland migration,” she said. “I don’t think it’s purely because of the weather and environment.”

Familiar villains

The prime drivers for moving: the cost of homeowners insurance and high mortgage rates.

In a recent newsletter published after Hurricane Helene, but before Hurricane Milton’s arrival, Deutch made the following points as they pertain to Tampa:

• Temporary rental demand: Expected to rise as homeowners undertake repairs. “The increased apartment demand will help Florida and the Southeast absorb much of the new supply that entered the market over the past 2 years.”

• Inland migration: It rose amid demand for new housing after Hurricane Ian, “and we expect the same will occur now.” “However, inland migration was already happening in Tampa as residents sought more affordable housing,” she added. “Over the last 12 months, Lakeland was the top in-migration destination from the Tampa MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area).”
• Insurance rates: They were originally expected by observers to decline as a result of what had been a “relatively mild hurricane season.” That, in turn, “could have spurred home buying and new construction.” Not now. “Hurricane Helene has made it unlikely that insurance rates will fall in Florida in 2025.”
•  Repair and remodel: The estimated price was $36 billion for post-Hurricane Ian repairs during a four-year period. “We expect R&R spending for Helene to be higher, given the extent of the Southeast affected and the higher cost of labor and materials.”

Banks working with owners

As damages are assessed and owners decide what to do next, lenders have taken to giving their borrower clients leeway to avoid foreclosures and defaults.

Banks have adopted deferral programs designed to keep homes in the hands of the owners who are given 60 or 90 days “where they don’t have to make any payments,” said David Druey, Florida regional vice president at Centennial Bank.

They can make up for the deferred payments on the back end of the loan.

The lenders’ approach changed after Hurricane Irma struck much of the state in 2017. Deferral programs essentially helped owners keep their homes.

“They all learned their lesson during the past episode there,” said O’Connor of Florida Realtors. “You definitely saw a rise in delinquencies during Irma. But the foreclosure rate did not go up.”

Seth Denison, spokesman for Optimum Bank in Fort Lauderdale, said his chief executive officer, Timothy Terry, saw the results of a tornado setting down in his own Wellington neighborhood.

“It crystalizes it for him in a way that makes it very real,” Denison said. “That personal effect is dribbling down with the way he interacts with customers and employees.”

Undaunted by climate change

Yet, the elephant in the room — climate change — still does not appear to have entered into the decision-making of many coastal dwellers, builders and policymakers.

“I don’t have a lot of people saying, ‘I don’t want to live on the ocean,’” Druey said. “Most of the people who live in new construction say ‘fine, bring it on.’”

Despite its hefty punch, Milton did not deliver the damage many feared.

Robert Smith, the south region president of Dania Beach-based First Service Residential, a property management firm serving condo, co-op and homeowner associations, called the damage to client properties around the state “minimal.” Many had reserves in place to fund needed repairs.

“We have been proactively working with our boards and stakeholders to navigate these types of challenges,” he said. “When these storms or other challenges occur these boards are prepared and that’s a good place to be. Most of our communities fared quite well after these storms.”

Investors sound unfazed by the spate of storms.

Integra Investments, a Miami-based real estate investment and development firm, just acquired Monaco Isles, a 319-unit garden style apartment complex with a golf course in West Palm Beach.

Victor Ballestas, a firm principal, does not foresee residents or investors leaving the area because of violent storms. His firm intends to upgrade the property, making it inviting for professionals in healthcare, law enforcement and education.

“I haven’t heard of any major shifts from any large investors who are thinking twice about investing in South Florida  because of the storms,” he said.

“When you have these storms come through, you get this influx of investor money and federal grants and people can take that money and invest it in what they have,” he added. “Usually the product is better. It’s not something we hope for, but when it happens and people stay, they usually improve their property.”

If there is to be a movement toward altering construction patterns, it won’t be dictated by state government.

During a post-Milton news conference in St. Petersburg with a collapsed crane in the background, Gov. Ron DeSantis was asked whether people should rebuild in areas vulnerable to repeated storms driven by climate change.

“So I think that there’s always going to be a demand to live in a beautiful part of the world,” the governor said after taking note of repeated storms in Florida.

“Maybe I took it for granted growing up around here, but you could go all across this country and not find beaches better than what you have right here in Pinellas County,” he said. “The reality is people work their whole lives to be able to live in environments that are really, really nice and they have the right to make those decisions with their property as they see fit. It is not the role of government to forbid them or to force them to dispose or utilize their property in a way that they do not think is best for them.”